Ideas
Annual PREDICTIONS
Global Developments to Watch over the Next Five Years
2023
(1) Corporate America, after enduring a never-ending stream of DEI reporting requirements, pushes back against quota-driven standards. DEI 2.0 rises from the ashes and focuses on Diversity (of perspective), Equality (of opportunity), and Incentives (to do well).
2022
…(11)…Time (or another major media outlet) identifies a new committee to save the world, this time from climate alarmism. Its members are Steve Koonin, Bjorn Lomborg, and Michael Shellenberger. Some climate change activists are aghast and begin petitioning bookstores everywhere to stop selling each of their books…
2021
…(8)…Global supply chains shift dramatically as “just-in-time, lowest-cost” logic gives way to “just-in-case, security-of-supply” objectives in corporate boardrooms. Companies around the world begin stockpiling raw materials and building inventories to buffer against possible disruptions.
2020
…(13)…Telecommunications equipment platforms begin the bifurcation of the global economy into two distinct trading blocks, one led by China, the other by the United States. Countries everywhere are forced to choose which economic ecosystem they will join.
2019
…(9)… The global community acknowledges that Cold War II is de facto underway between Russia, China, and the United States. Nuclear weapons production accelerates rapidly in the United States, driving Russia and China to also build large stockpiles.
2018
… (3)…Kazuo Ishiguro’s Never Let Me Go hauntingly refuses to be dismissed as pure fiction. Gene therapy makes major progress.
2017
…(17)…The meteoric rise of passive investing strategies continues to unsustainable heights. Passively managed assets under management exceed those that are actively managed.
2016
…(10)…National governments create military-like cyber teams to hunt down and bring cyber-terrorists to justice, but they are not able to avert a destabilizing attack on critical infrastructure. Ted Koppel’s Lights Out proves prophetic.
2015
…(9)… Ebola is contained, but another (this time airborne) epidemic rears its ugly head… Middle East Respiratory Syndrome?
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BOOMBUSTOLOGY
An authoritative, up-to-date guide to the history of booms, busts, and financial cycles; a must-read for investors, policymakers, and analysts.
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